SELF-SABOTAGE HANDICAPPING

So many horseplayers are into Self Sabotage Handicapping

Man, let me tell ya somethin' — I got a question last week that really made me stop and think. Guy goes: “BDJ, how do I break the cycle of sabotaging myself — by doing the same thing, over and over, and over again?”

You know what I said?

I said, “Buddy… you just took the first damn step.”

Because the second you ask a question like that, you’re not some average Joe out here chasing favorites at Gulfstream Park because your barber's got a tip. No, you’re searching. You’re thinking. And that — right there — that’s how you start changing your culture.

Let’s get this out of the way real quick — the definition of insanity or Self Sabotage Handicapping? It ain't just some cliché. It’s real. Doing the same thing, the same way, expecting a new result? That’s the graveyard of bankrolls, my friend. I’ve seen guys torch thousands doing just that — like they’re on autopilot. Same routine. Same tools. Same excuses.

Now listen, I got a buddy — sharp guy — he once pointed at his DRF and said, “All the winners are right here.” And I’m like… No kidding, no Sh*t Sherlock. Yeah, they’re in there — but pulling 'em out? Spotting the right one? That’s the art. That’s the game.

You look at the past performances 12, 15 times a year on the same horse… what more do you think you're gonna learn? Huh? Your brain already knows what it knows. That gut feeling you keep ignoring? That’s your Red focus alert. Your mind’s trying to tell you something — but do you listen? Or do you override it because the horse burned you last out?

Listen, just because a horse let you down last time, doesn’t mean he’s toast. You liked him for a reason. Maybe he needed the race. Maybe the trip was trash. Doesn’t matter — your initial read came from somewhere real. Don’t sabotage yourself by throwing it away.

And let me tell you about being stubborn — yeah, sometimes it pays. I’ve followed horses through three, four, five losses — but the pattern was there. The class drop. The pace setup. The rider switch. Sometimes, they just need a little help getting over the finish line.

Now here's the thing people forget — not every barn is looking to, or can, win right out of the gate. Some of these guys are developing horses, not flipping stocks. You ever see a Chad Brown runner in New York, 0-for-3, and still taking money? You better pause. That’s when you ask yourself — is this horse what I want him to be, or what he actually is?

Oh, and how about the time a barn that usually works with late-developers now got a 2-year-old-in-training sale rocket? Boom — double digits. Because every handicapper was glued to the stats. And let me tell you something about stats — they’re yesterday’s paper. The results already happened. You want to be good at this? You gotta project. You gotta see what’s coming, not just what’s been.

So if you're sitting there, stuck in a loop, torching tickets, saying “next time I’ll get it” — STOP. Take a step back. Ask yourself: Am I evolving? Or am I just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic?

Cuz, let me tell ya somethin’ — if you’re following a horse because you think it owes you money? You're already beat, man. Already beat. That horse doesn’t owe you jack. You’re betting with your pride, not your brain. And that, my friend, is how you go down with the ship... every. single. time.

You can’t keep going back to the same well just because you don’t want to admit you were wrong the first five times. That’s not handicapping — that’s emotional gambling. That’s hoping. That’s chasing. You start thinking, “Well, I’ve invested this much into him, might as well see it through.” No! That’s how they bury ya.

Listen, I’ve been in this game a long time. I’ve had cold streaks. I’ve been wrong. But you know what I did? I adjusted. I changed the damn playbook. When things weren’t working, I didn’t sit there drawing up the same busted screen pass hoping it’d break for a touchdown. I rewrote the whole offense, if I can relate that into football terms.

You gotta believe in your ability — but not blindly. You build confidence off your results. Not your feelings. When you win, study how you got there. Don’t gloat — learn. When you lose? Flush it. Short-term memory, baby. It’s like throwing a pick — get over it, move on, next play.

Now let’s talk about class. You’re out here trying to read into workouts on cheap claimers? Come on, man. That’s like scouting a quarterback by how far he can throw it in shorts — it don’t mean squat. These horses are in for $5,000 tags because that’s all they got. You think a bullet work on Tuesday means anything when the gates open Saturday? Forget it.

Cheap horses are fragile. They got soft tissue, soft minds, and softer back stories. They’ve been through it, alright? A fast workout doesn’t mean they’re sharp — it might mean they’re on the edge of falling apart. I’ve seen horses fire off a 59 and change with a tailwind and a sealed track — lookin’ like Secretariat. Next work? Couldn’t break 1:03 if the track was paved in gold.

You gotta handicap these animals for who they are, not who you want them to be. You think you found a gem? You better ask: can this horse repeat that effort if things don’t go perfect? If he doesn’t get loose on the lead? If somebody breathes on him at the quarter pole? Some of these speedballs wilt faster than a strawberry in the Florida sun.

My favorite line is "can this horse run any better than did last time?"

And don’t even get me started on class droppers. That back-class horse who used to dust allowance company but now can’t string together two works in 30 days? Yeah, there’s a reason he’s in for $12.5k. The gas tank ain’t full anymore. Doesn’t mean he can’t win — but you better know he needs spacing, soft spots, maybe a little TLC. He’s not that young buck breezing 47s like it’s a walk in the park anymore.

You want to win in this game? You gotta stop falling in love with names, with memories, with potential. This ain’t Madden26 — there’s no reset button or do over These horses are living, breathing athletes. They change. They wear down. You better change with 'em.

So I’m telling you, straight up — stop going down with the ship. Admit when you’re wrong. Get off the damn horse. And most importantly?

Start handicapping what’s real — not what you hope will be.

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