Where We At, Man?

We’re talkin’ less than 12 days from the start of Keeneland’s Fall Meet, and I gotta tell ya—I’m about as jacked up as I was before a Monday Night Football game, man. And you know what else? We’re under six weeks from the Breeders Cup hittin’ the Pacific coast at Del Mar, baby. That’s like gameday at the Rose Bowl, man—it don’t get any better.

Now look, we’re in training camp mode, alright? This is the part of the season where contenders are puttin’ in their final preps, workin’ hard, getting tuned up before they ship out west. You can feel the energy building. Horses are completing drills, tightening the screws, getting ready for war at Del Mar.

And us? We’re not sittin’ around eating nachos hopin’ for a longshot. We’ve got a checklist, man. A Gruden Grinder type checklist:

Coach John Gruden

✅ Watch the works. I’m talkin’ about real visuals—none of this “just read the clock” crap.

✅ Understand the trips. Who had a bad run? Who got buried behind traffic? You gotta watch the tape, man.

✅ Know the track. I mean really know it. Not just summer Del Mar—it ain’t the same.

✅ Don’t overvalue those “Win and You’re In” heroes. Yeah, they punched their ticket—but are they still peakin’? Are they still hungry, man?

Now lemme tell you somethin’—Del Mar Breeders Cup? It’s one of my absolute favorites. That’s my backyard, man. Just like Keeneland. I’m talkin’ biggest scores, biggest moments, freakin’ electric. Back in 2017, when we had our first BC at Del Mar, I leaned on every ounce of experience I had from years at that track.

People make a huge mistake—probably the biggest one out there—they judge Del Mar in November based on what they saw in July and August. You can't do that, man. That’s like scoutin’ a rookie QB in practice and thinkin’ he’s ready for the playoffs. The surface plays different. The rhythm, the tempo, the flow—it changes. And unless you’ve been there, unless you feel it... you’re gonna miss.

But we know the track. We’ve walked that turf, studied that dirt. We use our eyes, our notes, our gut, and we pack it all into our reports—loaded with observations, insights, stuff the average player just doesn’t see, man.

Until then? We’re takin’ it one day at a time. One prep at a time. One gate load at a time.

We’re breakin’ down the preps nationwide—lookin’ for movers, for grinders, for upside—guys flyin’ under the radar.

The information is going to be there. The opportunity real. But the outcome?

Well... that depends entirely on you.

Yes... we can make a difference. With yourself. With your life. With your ambitions, your dreams—whatever fragile yet resilient things still burn quietly within you. You have that power. But first... you must decide.

How am I going to play? How am I going to maximize my time... my bankroll... my edge?

Well, for starters: consolidate your information. Narrow your intake. Discard the noise. Take the garbage out, like the mental clutter it is. You must become surgical—precise. Be more concerned with the bottom line than the indulgence. The degeneracy. The blind chasing of odds you never truly understood.

Now, don’t misunderstand me—I adore this game. I love racing. Always have. But I’ve reached a point where I don’t have to gamble. And when I do, it’s not out of compulsion—it’s because I’ve found an edge. An opportunity that aligns with my information, my observations, and my terms.

The first step? It was clarity. I created a plan—deliberate, methodical. I began constructing my own fair odds, not out of arrogance, but out of necessity. Because this game... this beautiful, brutal game... it’s not what it used to be. The takeout bleeds you. The CAWs hunt you like wolves. And the industry? It doesn’t cater to the educated—it exploits the unaware.

Take today, for example. Churchill Downs. The horse? Englishman. A morning line of 8-1—a lie, whether by ignorance or design. He wins with ease at 2-1. Why? Because everyone and their uncle saw that inflated line, and like moths to a flame, they swarmed. If he’d been correctly listed at 7/2? He likely goes off at 7/2. Or 4-1. Or 3-1. And value remains for those who know.

Take last Friday. Spun D M C. A debut runner with Jane Elliott for Randy Morse. A name most players wouldn’t recognize if he were standing next to them at the paddock bar. Our fair odds? 6-1. The public let her go at 9-1. Why? Because they saw Elliott, shrugged, and moved on. $22 later... we were smiling. Not because we got lucky—but because we were prepared. Because we saw what others didn’t.

We are targeting the Keeneland meet for our Fair Odds.

And that, my friend, is the future of this game, having the right information and fading out the noise.

And this... this is just the beginning.

We will have our traditional handicappers dinner at Breeders Cup at Maurizio's Trattoria. RSVP if you are in town, we expect a table of about 20.

So buckle up, man. This is where champions and winners are made. Let’s go!