We've Got Mail

Yessir, we got mail!Mr. Steve has entered the chat, and folks... this man might just have a brain in his head and a soul in his heart — a rare combo in this game.

Let’s dive in.

Mr. Steve writes:

"Heard a lot about you & extremely interested to gain another edge in this game. Even though I've learned a lot I feel like my biggest weakness is I don't know what I am looking for when watching race replays/works. Been listening to your archived podcasts for awhile now & think that your product could really help me out!"

Well, Mr. Steve, first off, I like you already. You did something most horseplayers don’t even attempt — you admitted you don’t know everything. That right there puts you in unicorn territory. You actually asked for help instead of yellin' across the internet about Beyer figures and how you totally had the pick-5 “except for that one horse.” Bravo, my dude.

See, this industry is full of folks who will confidently tell you how it really works while burnin’ money faster than a bachelor party in Biloxi. A lot of people “watch replays” the way my uncle watches the news — lookin’ for whatever confirms what they already wanted to believe, and missin’ the whole damn point.

Now, what you said — about not knowin' what to look for in works and replays — that’s where the edge is. Because it ain’t just about spotting the obvious. If that’s all it took, half the handicappers in the world would be driving Teslas instead of bitchin’ about the takeout rate on Twitter.

Let me give you a little story. Summer of last year, horse named Sandman was workin' toward his debut at Churchill. Everybody and their mother — hell, even the track janitor — was throwin’ around words like “freak” and “monster” after his gate work on June 8. They thought they saw the next coming of Flightline. You know what I saw?

Click on Sandman

A Tapit bein’ a damn Tapit.

They weren't wrong, he had plenty of talent, but I have seen many talented horses, get beat first out, strictly on seasoning, Sandman was bet down and ran like he worked here, a being a damn Tapit.

Now if you’ve ever dealt with Tapits, you know what I mean — beautiful horses, athletic as hell, but half of ‘em act like they just drank a gallon of Mountain Dew and chased it with a firecracker. You don’t train a Tapit — you manage them. It’s like coachin' Dennis Rodman. You don’t tell him what to do — you just hope he shows up on time and keeps his pants on.

Sandman’s June 8th work? Yeah, he widened and beat his mate, but that ain’t the story. Watch close — he was stuck on his left lead, wasn’t listening to the rider, switched late, and then started floppin' leads like a fish on a dock. You don’t see that if you're just lookin’ at margin or time. You see that if you’ve watched a hundred of 'em do the same damn thing.

It ain’t just the sire either — it’s the whole family tree. Sometimes the mama was a nutcase, or maybe she never even got a shot. That context matters. You can’t just watch replays like you’re binge-watching Netflix — you gotta watch like you're studyin’ film in the SEC. Get in the weeds.

Let me tell you about Boldor. Saratoga, August 2018. Fast gate work in 59.3, we had 59 flat. Everyone was buzzin’ — except me. I watched him come back, and that colt looked like he’d just been chased by a swarm of bees. Stressed, flared nostrils, eyes buggin’ out like a cartoon character. You know what happened? He disappeared for a month. Good barn. Steve Asmussen saw it — he ain't no dummy.

My Notes on Boldor from 2018.

Fast forward, he comes back with chill works — 50s, 101s — nothin’ flashy. People wrote him off. Me? I was sittin’ on it like a hen on a golden egg. He debuted at Keeneland, paid $14, and I cashed for over 7 grand in the Pick 4. Folks were still talkin’ about the next new shiny thing — hundredths of a second and some goofy digital stopwatch — while I was quietly takin’ their lunch money.

That’s what this game’s about — context. Not just data. Not just charts. Stories. You gotta know how to read a horse like you’re readin’ a moody teenager: body language, attitude, history, the whole picture.

And that’s what we do with this product. We don’t just hand you the times and say “good luck.” We show you how to seethings. How to know what a workmate means. How to spot when a “fast” horse is actually just a dumb jock’s mistake. And maybe more importantly — when a “slow” one is about to light up the tote board.

So, Mr. Steve — welcome aboard. Keep listenin’, keep askin’, and remember what ol’ Jerry Dutton once told me when I brought up a flashy fast gate work:

“Son, we ain’t sittin’ ‘round here lickin’ our 'ice cream cones'.”

Translation? Don’t get distracted by the shiny stuff. Learn what matters.

We got you.