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The Rail

'' but he drew the rail,''

You hear that everyday, the buzzkill word if you like a horse, the rail, the red headed bastard stepchild of racing.  What if I told it is all rubbish? What if statistically, I can prove, without a shadow of a doubt that those words uttered are from uneducated on air personalities, talking heads, or handicappers that have buried themselves under a mountain of perceived handicapping angles and cliches that are farther than the next galaxy in reality? Let's examine, six tracks Racingwithbruno WiththeWorks features on the main track: 

The #1 post win % Sprinting:

Sam Houston: 27% - Top % of winners with more than 6 starts  Fair Grounds: 21% - Top % of winners in the starting gate  Gulfstream Park: 18%  - Top % of winner in the starting gate  Aqueduct: 15% - 2nd top % of winners in the starting gate Oaklawn Park: 20% - Top % of winners in the starting gate  Santa Anita: 10% - 4th lowest % of winners in starting gate  Out of the six tracks, 4 of the 6, the # 1 post was best % post position to be sprinting. 

At longer than mile on the main: Santa Anita: 13% 6th best win % at a mile or more on  main Oaklawn: 12.5% 4-way tie for best win % around 2 turns on main Aqueduct: 16% - Tied for 2nd best win % at a distance  Gulftstream Park: 15% best win % at mile or longer on main  Fair Grounds: 15% 3rd best win % going 2 turns on main (note that the #2 post won at 19%) Sam Houston: 11% 4th highest win % around 2 turns on main (Note: that 1-2-3 post combined win at 16%)  Inside posts going long are not automatic throwout nor are they dreaded.  So, next time someone says, 'but drew the rail' you will know better. and then go on and take their picks down for the pick 4 


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1 comentário

Couldn’t agree with you more. Next article should be about the starting gate. The one and only truth in horse racing is that “the starting gate will open“, what happens after that is just chance. So, who are the top jocks that miss the break?

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