The Futures

Boy I swear, every year it’s the same mess.

A horse wins one Derby prep and folks hammer the futures pool like they just saw Pegasus flap down outta heaven and autograph the saddle towel.

Colt wins the Risen Star Stakes and BOOM — straight to 9-1 in the futures for the Kentucky Derby. Not 19-1. Not “let’s think about this.” Nine to one. Like he just cured a disease on the gallop-out.

Paladin didn’t exactly part the Red Sea down there. He struggled to get by Chief Honcho. And when he did? He’s out there drifting toward the middle of the track like he smelled funnel cake.

Nobody herded him. Nobody bumped him. He just wandered.

Now I don’t know who needs to hear this, but when a horse starts drifting late, that ain’t usually because he’s admiring the architecture. Sometimes that’s air runnin’ out. Sometimes that’s lugging. Sometimes that’s a big ol’ body saying, “Hey boss, we about done here.”

But don’t you dare say that out loud.

Because in today’s world, subtlety is illegal.

Instead, we get:“Professional move.”

“Still learning.”

“Plenty left in the tank.”

Plenty left? He was reaching like me trying to grab the last biscuit at Thanksgiving.

Does Paladin deserve support? Maybe. He’s a big-bodied colt. Might want classic distance?. Might not. The way he moves, you could argue added distance is a question.

But who’s arguing movement anymore?

Most folks are staring at Beyers like they’re holy scripture. Bias notes. Auction prices. “He cost $800,000 so he must stay a mile and a quarter.” Yeah, and I paid good money for a treadmill — don’t mean I use it right.

Turn on any handicapping show and it’s the same script read by different haircuts. They repeat it so much it sounds like a hostage video.

And look, pardon me for being tough on opinions, but if your entire analysis is speed figures and vibes, maybe, maybe you ought NOT quit your day job. Maybe have a serious conversation with yourself in the mirror. Ask, “Do I actually see the horse, or am I just reading numbers?”

Because here’s the deal about value.

If everybody and their cousin is loading up on Paladin in February, where’s your edge? If the whole church choir’s singing the same hymn, you ain’t harmonizing — you’re just loud.

Value ain’t thinking like everybody else.

Value is being willing to say, “Nice horse. Wish him well. But I ain’t paying that price at this time.”

If you don't, you ain't missing anything, Junior!

If you’re gambling on whims and prayers, you might as well walk the walk and let the BS talk.

And it happens every single year. February hero. Futures darling. Social media superstar.

Then come the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs?

Crickets.

That favorite from winter? Vanished like my New Year’s resolutions.

So yeah, maybe pump the brakes before declaring the next legend because he won a prep and didn’t fall over.

Think outside the consensus. Think outside the neat little hot-take packages out there that litter the highway.

Otherwise you ain’t handicapping.

You’re just following the sheeps.

Its like the last four horses at lowest odds are horses that performed the latest and it stuck in them wooly brains.

And that’s baaaaad.

This Futures final Derby odds.

#40 All Other 3-Year-Olds (9-2, $11.30)

#25 Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner, 9-1, $20.80)

#24 Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time, 10-1, $22.76)

#5 Canaletto (Chad Brown, Into Mischief, 15-1, $32.86)

#30 Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief, 16-1, $35.08)

#32 Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus, 19-1, $40.02)

#7 Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, Constitution, 21-1, $45.98)

#10 Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief, 23-1, $49.18)

#15 Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner, 24-1, $50.74)

#3 Brant (Bob Baffert, Gun Runner, 26-1, $55.72)

#26 Plutarch (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief, 27-1, $56.64)

#23 Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Liam’s Map, 30-1, $62.10)

#1 Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Not This Time, 32-1, $66.16)

#16 Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, Curlin, 32-1, $67.20)

#2 Boyd (Bob Baffert, Violence, 34-1, $71.54)

#13 Englishman (Cherie DeVaux, Maxfield, 37-1, $77.14)

#20 Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Nyquist, 38-1, $78.38)

#37 Talk to Me Jimmy (Rudy Rodriguez, Modernist, 42-1, $86.34)

#12 Emerging Market (Chad Brown, Candy Ride-ARG, 42-1, $87.78)

#27 Potente (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief, 44-1, $90.34)

#19 Jackson Hole (Todd Pletcher, Nyquist, 45-1, $93.68)

#34 So Happy (Mark Glatt, Runhappy, 53-1, $108.90)

#11 Courting (Todd Pletcher, Curlin, 54-1, $110.58)

#4 Bravaro (Saffie Joseph Jr., Upstart, 60-1, $123.42)

#31 Secured Freedom (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke, 61-1, $124.36)

#14 Ewing (Mark Casse, Knicks Go, 62-1, $127.90)

#8 Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, Connect, 65-1, $133.20)

#28 Powershift (Todd Pletcher, Constitution, 69-1, $141.66)

#33 Six Speed (Bhupat Seemar, Not This Time, 73-1, $148.80)

#9 Class President (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo, 75-1, $152.48)

#29 Pyromancer (JPN) (Kenji Yoshimura, Pyro, 77-1, $157.70)

#17 Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, Maximus Mischief, 82-1, $167.76)

#36 Solitude Dude (Saffie Joseph Jr., Yaupon, 83-1, $168.66)

#18 Iron Honor (Chad Brown, Nyquist, 122-1, $247.62)

#38 The Puma (Gustavo Delgado, Essential Quality, 123-1, $248.12)

#35 Soldier N Diplomat (Steve Asmussen, Army Mule, 129-1, $260.84)

#22 My World (Brad Cox, Essential Quality, 207-1, $416.26)

#6 Carson Street (Brendan Walsh, Street Sense, 307-1, $616.26)

#21 Mesquite (Cherie DeVaux, Union Rags, Wagering Suspended)

#39 Thunderously (Bill Mott, Gun Runner, Wagering Suspended)