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Bingo!

I am not one to pay attention who likes what, but I do like to see what the public may be leaning to, which I call my version of Bingo.


I am not afraid to be wrong, but I want to be wrong on my terms. I have been wrong so many times It doesn't matter anymore was the rallying cry of one public figure.


For starters, know your competition, yes, there is some handicappers that reasonate the public sentiment and on big days I want to hear them call their numbers out.


For this Saratoga Belmont Stakes card I tend to listen what the crew at NYRA handicapping show say, please don't shoot the messenger, I know, but I get a line what to expect.


Aside from the Beyer, Beyer, Beyer, rail, Beyer, Beyer, Beyer, discussion, the New York beting public looks at thing similarly with their monies, and the board makes more sense.


First of all, lets make something clear, in no way shape or form, poke a needle in my eye, I am not validating my picks, in fact, if we have a similar opinion on a price play, I am expecting clear and present action on the tote on that particular horse.


Second of all, I love, love, love, when I am bullish on a horse and I hear "here's the problem with this horse'', you know the line, yadda, yadda, yadda, Beyer, Beyer, Beyer......


I respect somebody having an opinion, what I strive as a handicapper is avoiding the kiss of death when the public lands squarely on who I like.


Why? I simply see the races much different than the public. The overall public sees numbers, stats, I like to think I am more into the horse itself.


The Acorn Stakes on Friday was a great example:



Just F Y I had trained well, I can't lie about that, but I had to tell you I didn't trust her and i editorialized why.


If you watched her in the paddock and post parade, she was very animated, a bit wet, and far too much energy in the post parade. I concluded that my gut feeling that the big works put her over the top was correct. You don't know that until you see them in the paddock and post parade when their anxiety and mental state comes to the fore.


Horses are very emotional animals, they speak to you via their actions and moods.


You are asking yourself 'How would I see that?'


Watch for more than average energy, I favor horses that act like they are asleep, they are quiet but alert. Energy outbursts, dancing around is misconstrued as a positive. but its a very big negative.


Just F Y I showed that anxiety through her actions. She was a throw out for me for what I saw on the track. She ran off to the pace, some say it was a tactic, and stopped badly. She got beat by 22 lengths at 3-1 2nd choice.


To illustrate again, too much energy is NOT a good thing.


The public usually is the last to see these changes. You have to be able to zig when they zag, and make changes to your selections based on their looks and actions.


If you are afraid to be wrong if you change your mind, you have been wrong plenty of times before one more isn't going to destroy you.


If there is an 8/5 shot that's dancing like Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers simultaneously in the paddock, tend to gravitate to others, follow the ones that look like your grandmother going to the store for groceries, your life doesn't depend on that 8/5 favorite. There's ample other chances.


In simple terms, this game is all about your mentality in your approach.


The 'All I need is the Form' is such a bullshit, narrow minded approach, you need a set of eyes and some intuition when looking at horses.


Just F Y I told you in the post parade and the public took her body language and ran to the windows. The public, overall, has been classically conditioned to follow negative traits as positive ones.


Seize the Grey in today's Belmont Stakes, if you watch the Preakness, pan and head on.




If you watch the head on, you can easily witness 'Grey drifting out from the 2 path to the 5-6 path in stretch. He is under left handed whip, yes, but horses drift as they are, in general, running out of air. It is a sign of getting to the bottom of their stamina and, of course, tiring.


What does that also say about the rest of the field?


If all you need is a form, you can't see that. The head on gives you an inside view of the actual performance.


I will watch, Seize the Grey in the post parade on clues of how he is mentally approaching the race. You pay attention to simple energy levels, and you would be amazed on what you see and as you gather experience, you can throw horses out solely off their behavior, while the public is in line to play or too busy putting their tickets online.


My approach is two tiered, I want to know who the public figures fancy because they are representative of the masses, as the masses may also follow their line of thinking and those same masses will use false myths about horses when scouring the paddock, creating false sense of confidence in their selections.


I would rather back off a horse, that 'everybody' likes, since I would have zero advantage or back off a horse that is exhibiting all the wrong physical and mental attributes before a race.


If I can see it, I can adjust, that is the last frontier to handicapping, if you are afraid to be wrong, take up bingo!

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