In 2016, my webmaster and I started to discuss the possibility of having an algorithm that would calculate all the WiththeWorks Handicapping Factors and creating selections based alone on the data.
An Algorithm is a process or set of rules to be followed in calculations or other problem-solving operations, but the question was how and what to use? the answer was using a point system for each individual factor.
We had balance our Delta Figures, 4 star works, 3 star works, with our analysis and comments and separate from our Works Ranking system. Also we added Hot Trainer, Hot Jockeys, Hot horses, and more. We also needed to weigh each factor in points from last two races.
'TDLT' => Top delta at same surface
'3DLT' => One of the 3 top deltas
'ADLT' => Within 3 points of average top-3 deltas
'4WKCR' => Recent 4 star work with comment within 30 days
'4WKNR' => Recent 4 star work with NO comment within 30 days
'3WKC' => Recent 3 star work with comment within 30 days
'3WKN' => 3 star work without comments within 30 days
'JKY' => Jock on Fire
'TRN' => Trainer on fire
'FIRE' => Horse is on Fire, 2 of 3 must be true (Top 3 Delta, Hot Jock or Trainer, is AllStar)
'HTW' => If horse is on the watch list and last update within 90 days with a ****
'JTOA4' => Jockey, Trainer, and Owner is all 4 star
'JTOS4' => Jockey, Trainer, or Owner one is a 4-star or better
'JTOA3' => Jockey, Trainer, and Owner is all 3 star
'JTOM3' => Jockey, Trainer, or Owner at least 2 is a 3-star or better
'JTOS3' => Jockey, Trainer, or Owner one is a 3-star or better
'TONAME' => Trainer and Owner share the same last name
Main Track
'F1' => for Sprint/Route main top pace Zeta fig,
'F2' => for Sprint/Route main top pace Zeta Fig
'F3' => for Sprint/Route main top pace Zeta Fig
FF1 => for Sprint/Route main top Final Fraction Fig
FF2 => for Sprint/Route main 2nd best Final Fraction Fig
FF3 =>for Sprint/Route main 3rd best Final Fraction Fig
Turf Course
'F1' => for Sprint/Route main top pace Zeta fig.
'F2' => for Sprint/Route main top pace Zeta Fig
'F3' => for Sprint/Route main top pace Zeta Fig
FF1 => for Sprint/Route main top Final Fraction Fig
FF2 => for Sprint/Route main 2nd best Final Fraction Fig
FF3 => for Sprint/Route main 3rd best Final Fraction Fig
We weight each factor in points in order of importance and effect on each individual race.
The algorithm formula checks all the factors and assigns the points:
Race 1: Parx - Monday, March 8, 2021
1) #7 CLOUT CHASER - 275 points. <font color="blue">TOP Two DELTA</font> based on the best latest effort. Trainer / Owner Combo. Top <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F1). The <font color='red'>Fastest Closing ZETA Fig</font> (FF1).
2) #3 A BIT BAD N BOUJEE - 155 points. <font color="blue">TOP DELTA</font> for best effort. Post Position wins at least 15%. Third best <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F3).
3) #4 PERFECTA STORM - 90 points. <font color="blue">TOP Three DELTA</font> based on the best latest effort. Post Position wins at least 15%. Second <font color='red'>Fastest Closing ZETA Fig</font> (FF2). Third
4) #2 STONEHARBOR BLONDE - 80 points. Post Position wins at least 15%. Second best <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F2). Winner $19.20
5) #6 BAHAMA BREEZE - 51 points. <font color="red">3-STAR-WORK RANKING OUR VERSION OF THE BULLET WORK</font> off the Work Rankings. Trainer / Owner Combo. Post Position wins less than 10%. Third <font color='red'>Fastest Closing ZETA Fig</font> (FF3).
6) #5 TREASURE SEEKER - 50 points. Trainer / Owner Combo. 2nd $8.20 Place $2 Exa $274.20
7) #1 MO PARTY - 31 points. <font color="red">3-STAR-WORK RANKING OUR VERSION OF THE BULLET WORK</font> off the Work Rankings. Post Position wins at least 15%.
Race 2: Parx - Monday, March 8, 2021
1) #4 KIT KAT KATIE - 130 points. Post Position wins at least 15%. Top <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F1).
2) #7 FRISKY FEELING - 115 points. <font color="blue">TOP DELTA</font> for best effort. Post Position wins less than 10%. Second <font color='red'>Fastest Closing ZETA Fig</font> (FF2). Winner $10.40
3) #1 IAM A UNICORN - 105 points. <font color="blue">TOP Two DELTA</font> based on the best latest effort. Post Position wins at least 15%.
4) #6 IWASBORNAWINNER - 90 points. Post Position wins at least 15%. Second best <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F2). Third <font color='red'>Fastest Closing ZETA Fig</font> (FF3).
Race 3: Parx - Monday, March 8, 2021
1) #4 LEAN ON E - 215 points. <font color="blue">TOP Two DELTA</font> based on the best latest effort. Post Position wins at least 15%. Top <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F1). Third <font color='red'>Fastest Closing ZETA Fig</font> (FF3). Winner $8.80
2) #6 CARMELTINI - 140 points. <font color="blue">TOP DELTA</font> for best effort. Post Position wins less than 10%. The <font color='red'>Fastest Closing ZETA Fig</font> (FF1).
3) #5 FOUR SEASONS GIRL - 130 points. Post Position wins at least 15%. Top <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F1).
4) #2 PRESTO CHANGE O - 115 points. <font color="blue">TOP Three DELTA</font> based on the best latest effort. Post Position wins at least 15%. Second best <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F2). 2nd EXA $27.60
Race 6: Parx - Monday, March 8, 2021
1) #4 BEST START - 180 points. Trainer / Owner Combo. Post Position wins at least 15%. Top <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F1). Winner $48.00
2) #6 STAR LUCK - 150 points. <font color="blue">TOP DELTA</font> for best effort. Post Position wins less than 10%. Second best <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F2). Third <font color='red'>Fastest Closing ZETA Fig</font> (FF3). 2nd $2 EXA $125.40
3) #5 DR ZRADA - 150 points. <font color="blue">TOP Two DELTA</font> based on the best latest effort. Trainer / Owner Combo. Third best <font color='red'>Pace ZETA Fig</font> (F3).
4) #2 DEL PO - 115 points. <font color="blue">TOP Three DELTA</font> based on the best latest effort. Post Position wins at least 15%. The <font color='red'>Fastest Closing ZETA Fig</font> (FF1).
The Algorithm at Parx on Monday selected a top choice in the 6th at $48.00. In handicapping terms the long shot was the fastest Early via the Zeta Fig (F1).
We have assigned a weighing factor per each category, speed (Delta), pace (Zeta F), final fractions (Zeta FF), trainer, jockey, combo, post positions, etc.
The algorithm runs for each and every race for every track we list.