The Mush
- Bruno@Racingwithbruno
- 2 hours ago
- 3 min read
Superstition in Horse Racing?
Does the Mush Exist?
Yes his name is Eddie Mush.
And while we're at it, I also believe in the Exacta and the Pick 5 Fairy.
I'm highly superstitious. Not about black cats or walking under ladders. My superstition lives in the grandstand.
I'll handicap a race, land on a horse for all the right reasons, build a solid case... then I hear some guy who couldn't pick yesterday's newspaper bragging about how much he loves my horse.
Immediately, I start looking for the Pass button.
Some people are wrong about everything, yet somehow they have a following. A cult. A congregation. They're racing demigods. Their opinions carry weight for reasons nobody can explain. Maybe it's charisma. Maybe it's volume. Maybe people simply enjoy being led over the same cliff.
I've always preferred finding the horse everybody else threw away. The overlooked one.
The horse the crowd dismisses because the connections don't have Hall of Fame resumes.
The universal "good thing?" That's usually not where I live.
Hit them where they ain't. Simple philosophy.
Think outside the box. Better yet, don't even know where the box is.
Take Sunday's seventh at Saratoga. I wasn't afraid to land on Liberty's Secret from the Patrick Quick barn at 5-1. Why was he 5-1? Let's not overcomplicate it.
Patrick Quick.
That's the reason.
His name doesn't trigger Chad Brown or Brad Cox reflexes.
The horse checked every handicapping box. He paid $7.
Meanwhile, Liberty's Advance, trained by Bill Mott, was hammered to under 2-1 and finished third.
Patrick Quick versus Bill Mott.
Bill Mott wins that matchup every day... at the betting windows.
Here is our opening week Stats:
The same people who constantly preach about "value" are lining up to accept underlays because they recognize the trainer's name. Bravo, next trick is begging at the wire.
That's the contradiction nobody wants to discuss.
This game has no shortage of brilliant talkers. They'll tell you they can move mountains, reverse rivers, and set the sun in the east.
Then they spend the afternoon worshipping the same handful of fashionable trainers and repeating whatever the industry echo chamber tells them.
That's where my superstition kicks in.
Never let collective opinion cloud independent judgment.
The Mush is real.
Ask Eddie Mush
Every day there's fresh evidence.
Take one of my favorites.
"But he drew the rail."
It doesn't matter if it's a five-furlong dash or a two-mile turf marathon.
"But he drew the rail."
As though some invisible force field fries horse and rider the moment the gates open.
Listen now. Hear me later.
If a horse is going to break slowly, he'll break slowly in a one-horse race.
Yet dead closers routinely get downgraded because... they drew the rail.
It's Pavlov's dogs.
Ring the bell...
"He drew the rail!"
Everybody starts salivating.
Here's the funny part.
At many tracks, going 4½ to 6 furlongs with a short run to the first turn, the rail is exactly where you'd like to be.
But why let facts interrupt a well-rehearsed chant?
Very few players bother studying post-position statistics by distance and configuration.
For example, at Fair Grounds, the rail going two turns wins around 20 percent of the time. That's the highest winning post for that configuration.
Yet the same experts asking, "Who's going to make the lead?" immediately downgrade the inside horse..."...because he drew the rail."
At Gulfstream Park every winter?
The inside can be gold on the main track.
Yet every December the chorus begins again.
"But he drew the rail."
The people endlessly recycling these industry clichés are the truly superstitious ones.
They've elevated handicapping myths into religious doctrine.
We've become a cult-oriented society, and horse racing isn't immune.
Sweet Baby Jesus...
What have we become?
I'll tell you.
Eddie Mush.
Bet on it.