Six-to-Five
- Bruno@Racingwithbruno
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Today was full of intrigue, suspicion, and the sort of genteel cynicism Racingwithbruno would wrap around a fine morning cup of espresso.
You know, when I saw the morning line for what they’re calling the race of the century — the Breeders’ Cup Classic, this Saturday at Del Mar — I nearly choked.
Sovereignty at six-to-five. Well, now, not six-to-five to win, mind you… six-to-five just to NOT make the race, according to his trainer.
This morning, Bill Mott held a press conference and announces, quite gravely, that Sovereignty has spiked a temperature.
Sovereignty hasn’t exactly been a model of transparency since the Derby. Skipped the Preakness, lingered on the shelf for weeks, reappeared in the Belmont and then toyed with Bracket Buster in the Travers — that's Bracket Buster not Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Journalism and Forever Young, Bracket Buster is a nice horse but a cut below the best, is a generous statement.
Six-to-five against the best older horses in the country? That’s not confidence; that’s propaganda.
But here’s the beauty of it — if he scratches, the myth endures. The fever will be his shield,
the perfect excuse. “What a shame, he was a lock " they’ll say. “He never got the chance to show the world.” If he runs and loses, though, the illusion shatters. The aura dims. The stallion deals still happen but with a bad taste in the breeders mouths .
This is bad luck, is what they'll say, but I’ve seen this dance before — the east coast bias, is alive and well, along with the cheerleading media manipulation, and the delicate balancing act between legacy and liability.
Sovereignty may be the star, but he hasn’t danced all the dances. Two starts since the Derby? Please. Meanwhile, the likes of Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Journalism and that gallant traveler Forever Young have actually earned their scars, the hard way, showing up and digging in.
So perhaps the Travers will be Sovereignty’s final act — a glorious mirage on a summer afternoon, beating a five-horse field and fooling us all into thinking the crown still fits. And the six-to-five line? That’s just New York whispering to itself in the dark, pretending the world stops at Saratoga.
If Bracket Buster were in this race, he’d be twenty-five-to-one, maybe higher. But then again, in this business — as in life — perception, my friend, is far more powerful than truth. And sometimes… a little fever can cure a multitude of sins.
We will handicap the Classic without Sovereignty in it and he definitely won't be the last,
Veterinarians were all over the backside this morning, with a concentration on two barns during our time back there. They will make every horse take one step after the other, and evaluate them, so stay tuned.
Also, seen some trainers trying to grip the reality of dealing with the one hole. Yes the one hole, a bad word around the backstretch, even though, in my opinion, if you break poorly from the one hole you most likely would have broken poorly from any other hole.
One thing about this industry, in so many cases there is always someone wanting to break a story before everyone else. We got that going for us, so stay tuned, and with so many opportunities this weekend WE will land on OUR feet no matter what post.
