Saratoga Ranting

Update from original blog beloW:

On Sunday, Flavien Prat, Jose Ortiz, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. won 7 of the 10 Saratoga races, which is right at the average for the meet.

Saratoga has become jockey racing. Handicap accordingly.

Original Blog

Saratoga Has Become a Two or three -Rider Meet—and Horseplayers Should Care.

Saratoga handicapping starts and stops with Irad Ortiz Jr. and Jose Ortiz. The premier meet in the country has become dominated by one agent and two riders. A Family Feud type of show, but it's more than just two elite jockeys. It's the network that has been assembled around them. The colony accommodates them. In our opinion, mounts are held for them. Whether you agree or disagree, the perception alone should concern horseplayers.

Yet handicappers don't seem to care. They see Saratoga, and that's enough.

There is still some mystique surrounding Del Mar, although it no longer carries the electricity it had during the 1990s and early 2000s. Why? Because today's racing culture has become increasingly driven by social media, celebrity, and groupthink. NYRA has marketed Saratoga brilliantly, but marketing cannot substitute for credibility. Integrity has slipped well below the standard the game should demand.

The industry has become comfortable allowing a select few to control the landscape while everyone else simply falls in line. It seems to be the accepted standard today.

When two riders represented by the same agent win 10 of 12 races on a card, alarms should be ringing. Instead, we celebrate it.

Then there are the operational issues. Races are carded at incorrect distances. Gate placements alter race timing. Morning workout management leaves plenty to be desired. Cronyism appears to flourish. Yet none of it matters because people are lined up outside the gates at 7:00 a.m., eager to soak in the Saratoga experience.

What happens if information from Saratoga is suddenly restricted? Today there are workout videos and data, but those resources don't necessarily keep everyone honest. What happens when horseplayers are left in the dark?

Meanwhile, Ellis Park is quietly developed into one of the best meets in the country.

We provide an independent, third-party workout report at Ellis—no politics, no favoritism, no collusion with official clockers, and no sitting in anyone's lap.

At Saratoga, the clockers and the self-appointed "turf authorit-a" have become intertwined. They are often one and the same., flooding the product with their information. That is not healthy for handicappers as they seek to control the narrative, you control the narrative and you get a funneled opinion on one horse or two, skewing prices. Duh!

A thriving racing product requires independent clockers working  away from the clockers' stand, free from influence and free from agenda.

Today, everything seems to have to be managed, fixed, or controlled because too many people in positions of influence are insecure. They lack accountability to the industry and are driven more by self-interest than stewardship. It's about them—not the overall health of the industry. 

That may be one of the biggest reasons serious handicappers continue leaving the game.

Horseplayers don't expect certainty. They simply want a fair opportunity.

At Saratoga, a handful of people appear to control the entry box and much of the racing narrative. The meet has become more spectacle than competition, while simultaneously draining attention from tracks offering far healthier betting opportunities. Just look at the circus that happens there daily. 

Ellis Park, meanwhile, has delivered full fields and outstanding competition.

The numbers tell the story.

At Ellis Park, leading riders Francisco Arrieta and Ben Curtis have combined to win just 27 of 104 mounts, about 25% of the total races.

Through the same period at Saratoga, 91 of the first 120 races were won by the top five jockeys—a staggering 76%.

At Ellis Park, the top five riders have won 55 of 108 races, or 51%.

At Saratoga, Irad Ortiz Jr. and Jose Ortiz alone have accounted for 32% of all victories, despite Irad missing the first two weeks of the meet or else that number would have been right around 50% or more.

Looking only at the top four riders, the disparity becomes even greater.

At Saratoga, the top four jockeys have won approximately 67% of all races.

"But B-runo, I know the jockeys at Saratoga!" Well, congratu-fuckin-lation, you are an expert.

At Ellis Park, the top four riders have won just 43 of 108 races—39.8%.

In other words, the top four riders at Saratoga win at nearly twice the rate of the top four riders at Ellis.

That diversification matters.

At Ellis, more riders have legitimate opportunities, creating far more betting value because winners come from throughout the colony rather than from a small, predictable group.

Del Mar falls somewhere in between.

The top five riders have won 57% of the races, while the top four riders have accounted for 54% of the victories.

Those numbers suggest a healthier competitive balance than Saratoga, even if not quite as broad as Ellis Park.

Yet the betting public continues to funnel money toward Saratoga while largely overlooking

both Del Mar and Ellis Park.

Saratoga remains the sport's marquee meet. But from a handicapping standpoint, concentration is replacing competition.

Ellis Park, on the other hand, offers something horseplayers have always valued: competitive fields, diverse winning riders, and the sense that more participants have a legitimate chance.

If you compare the cards today, respectively at Ellis Park and Saratoga, a sane handicapper would pick Ellis over Saratoga, but that'll be the day.

I am playing Ellis Park today.

 I'll peek in to Saratoga for a high flying act or a trapeze show, if I am in the mood to see games I'll turn on Family Feud, the one with Richard Dawson.