Saratoga Rant II
- Bruno@Racingwithbruno
- 2 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Here we Go Again!
Every year, there is always something, its not one thing its another, but thats for another day.
Our blog yesterday sparked some to write us, overwhelmingly it was well received, but you know it, its always that one guy, and its not that they have something worthwhile to add:
"You don't no Shit"
OK, Sparky, its know not no.
As usual, people read a blog, skim it, and completely miss the point.
They immediately become emotional—either for it or against it. That seems especially true when it comes to Saratoga. Mention the Spa, Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose Ortiz, or the New York colony, and some fans react as if you've insulted a member of their family. They defend it with tunnel vision, often taking their cues from whatever television personality they're listening to.
But that's not the point.
A Racingwithbruno partner, Amy Kearns—the voice of reason around here—we jokingly call her "HR" because she has a remarkable ability to handle people problems without adding to the nonsense. We were discussing the state of racing one day, integrity, perception, and how much of the game has changed.
She said something I'll never forget.
"If you're confident about what's going on, use it to your advantage."
Boom.
That's handicapping.
Don't complain.
Build a plan.
If Saratoga is dominated by three or four riders who are going to win 70-80% of the races, then handicap accordingly.
That's information.
That's not an opinion.
Dylan Davis, Luis Saez, and the rest of the colony are fighting an uphill battle because, in my opinion, the top riders and their agents control much of the entry box.
Now, before someone sends me a chart proving Irad picked up a mount after a scratch and won, let's establish one thing.
Late pickup mounts don't count.
If Tyler Gaffalione comes off a horse because of an injury and Irad picks up the mount an hour before post time, don't run to the betting window thinking you've discovered something.
That's circumstance.
I'm talking about the original plan.
These riders and their agents have a system, and they execute it exceptionally well.
They're a machine.
How does a young rider break through in New York?
Generally speaking...
He doesn't.
He waits until the major players leave town.
One trainer told me something years ago that perfectly summed up the mindset.
"If I've got a live horse, I want Irad."
That's become the norm.
If you've got a horse with a legitimate chance, there's a good possibility Irad, Jose, or Flavien Prat has been on that horse in the morning at some point.
If Dylan Davis ends up riding him, the first question I ask isn't whether Dylan can ride.
He absolutely can.
The question is...
Where are the top three?
Why aren't they there?
If they were aboard in the morning and liked the horse, why didn't they stay?
If Manny Franco was holding the mount and suddenly Jose takes over, I want to know why.
Those are handicapping questions.
Now, let me be clear.
This is my philosophy.
My interpretation.
Years of watching rider changes, observing barn patterns, and following relationships.
You may disagree.
That's perfectly fine.
When Brittany Russell ships from Parx and Sheldon Russell rides, I respect the loyalty.
But if one of the New York elite had the opportunity to ride and passed...
I become curious.
The same goes for European shippers.
If they land in New York and pick up one of the established colony riders, that's a positive to me.
If they fly over with their regular European jockey, I become a little more skeptical.
I have my reasons.
If I explained every one of them, some would accuse me of writing the National Enquirer of handicapping.
So I'll leave it there.
Watch the musical chairs.
That's where the money is.
Irad gets off a horse he won on, and Jamie Rodriguez inherits the mount.
Fine.
But where did Irad go?
That's the question.
Jamie rode one last time, and today Irad or Jose climbs aboard?
That's information.
A horse exits a race with Prat and now another rider takes over because Prat chose another Pletcher or Chad Brown horse?
That's information.
You already know where Irad rides.
You know where Prat rides.
You know which owners and barns have first call.
Now follow the dominoes.
Watch who replaces whom.
Watch who gave up what.
Watch where the agents moved their pieces.
That's where the puzzle begins.
I know.
It's work.
Some horseplayers don't enjoy that part.
They want to know who's working well.
Who's going to make the lead.
Who's dropping in class.
Nothing wrong with that.
But when the top three or four riders are winning such an overwhelming percentage of races, and you're spending all your time trying to beat them with the sixth or seventh rider because
you think you're finding value...
You're probably missing the biggest piece of information on the page.
Sometimes the edge isn't finding something nobody else sees.
Sometimes the edge is recognizing exactly what everyone sees...
...and understanding it better than they do, and I no all about that.