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"Bad Habits"

Updated: Jun 5

I take pride of being right and even being wrong if for all the right reasons.

Bad habits kill handicappers opportunities. Here is how I approach handicapping:

My ways to assess works is not only judging the work, but also looking at the physical status of the horse, trainers intent and where they are going to run, simple enough right?

I have done well over the years using my eyes to understand, and assess an animal in front of me. I have been taught well.

I have bought Graded Stakes winners, Ms Locust Point and Bo Cruz, as yearlings, for less than $65K combined.

If I don't like a horse for the ways he moves or acts, I tell you, I don't make you guess what I am thinking, I go against everything Michael Corleone preached in The Godfather 3 scene to Vincent Santino Corleone.

I tell you what I am thinking.

I spend long hours or more to enter works for a large card like Belmont Stakes day, and watch everything I have at my disposal, how horses walk from yearlings to 2yos, replays, etc.

All I need to see is one good work in a pattern, a good moving horse, and i am on a hunt for more.

Following ratings is a bad habit, understanding the rating is the KEY.

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️, four star, is our premium work, they did something special and noteworthy, and it doesn't have to be a fast work. It's how they did it, touted themselves. You follow a four star work and follow them back later as a guide.

For example, first or second time starter gets 4 star works, and like so many firsters they don't fire, and are quickly forgotten, then next out, when everyone is jumping on the latest hot first time starter, our 2nd time horse runs to those works and pays a price, to boot, even better coming off a layoff, where the trainer knows what he has and gets them ready to run without exposing to more attention.

I rate a good, decent work ⭐️⭐️⭐️ ,three stars, meaning it is not showing me any negative or strong positive reason to follow that horse.

I rate an ordinary work ⭐️⭐️ two stars, i will tell you if I saw something in my editorial comments in the work if I thought was negative. Two stars means it was ordinary.

⭐️ one star i will tell you I didn't like work at all

We tell you what we see and how it fits today, from angles very few handicappers will dream of or even share with you.

This is a particularly important to revisit:

Any handicapper, that doesn't want to see our picks and compare with theirs, not for validation, but for what they don't have what we have, is a rookie, or an arrogant novice.

See the product for what you don't have on your ticket. If you think you are genius reading the form, congratulations, well done. You are officially the worst informed handicapper on the planet.

You need what you cannot see or read in the past performances to beat the odds.

Don't be that guy that looks to validate his picks, look for the ones you don't have. If that is all you do it is time to break that bad habit. This weekend the bad habits go bye bye.

I have used some old and some new tricks I have been sititng on (see the Thursday edition of Saratoga's Belmont Stakes weekend opening card) quietly, and I hope they make a huge difference, because all you need is one, right ?


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