I'll Be Back
- Bruno@Racingwithbruno
- 1 hour ago
- 4 min read
Hot diggity, what an amazing summer it has been already! The World Cup is coming to a crescendo with the Final on Sunday—but more on who I like a little later.
Today, I wanted to talk about handicapping in the Information Age, remember Terminator, how Sky Net came to pass, and Arnold's signature line i'll Be Back.
When I got started in this industry, we learned from books. Real books. Books by renowned authors like James Quinn, Andy Beyer, Steve Davidowitz, Mark Cramer, and Barry Meadow. I was fortunate enough to eventually call each of them a friend. Some, to this day, still are.
One of my all-time favorites was Handicapping in the Information Age. I bought that book back in 1984, and I was spellbound by James Quinn's vision of how technology and computers could help organize, filter, and process information.
Remember, back then there was no internet. I had notebooks—stacks of them—filled with trip notes, claim histories, speed figures, workout observations, trainer patterns... everything. Information was priceless, but it lived in your filing cabinet, not your phone.
Quinn explained, so succinctly, how technology could become an extension of the handicapper—not a replacement for one.
Fast forward to 2012.
Those same teachings became the foundation for BrunoWithTheWorks.com. Along with the expertise of my webmaster—"Il Maestro," as he insists on being called—we built the website you know today. The goal was simple: organize information so horseplayers could use it more efficiently while still relying on their own judgment.
Those books remain required reading for any serious handicapper. They represent what I consider the golden age of handicapping literature.
Nowadays?
Those lessons are few and far between.
Every wiseguy has a podcast.
Everybody knows everything.
Most are simply recycling someone else's information to make themselves sound brilliant, and—voilà—they become handicapping stars... at least in their own minds.
Some wear loud, obnoxious shirts. Others flood social media with every conceivable ticket known to mankind, chasing likes, follows, and clicks.
The podcasts all sound the same.
Who's got the biggest Beyer.
What the Sheets say.
Who had the widest trip.
Which online workout video looked sensational.
Some jockey expert. Some pace expert. Some workout guru who's never gotten so much as a whiff of horse manure standing on the backside suddenly becomes an authority on morning drills.
Everybody claims to have an edge.
Maybe they do, most likely they don't.
But most of it is pretty dull because they're simply repackaging somebody else's work.
Yet, they all land on the same logical horse.
Like I asked AI who's going to World Cup today, and it told me France. Hate to break it to old circuits and wires France is out, I personally like the Latin team to win the World Cup.
Now, of course, we have AI in horse racing too.
Artificial Intelligence has empowered everyone, and everyone is thinking they got an edge.
But here's the thing...
AI gives you back exactly what you feed it.
Garbage in, garbage out. Its like a diet.
AI isn't magic. It's software that can instantly search, summarize, compare, and organize enormous amounts of information. That's incredibly useful—but it isn't intuition. It isn't instinct.
It isn't experience.
Can you imagine jockeys using Chat GPT on how to ride a speed horse, and here's is the answer:
"Go to the Front!"
Riding a true speed horse is one of the hardest jobs in racing because your goal isn't simply to go fast—it's to get the horse to use its speed efficiently. The best speed riders make it look effortless.
Here are the key principles:
Break sharply. A speed horse's greatest weapon is often leaving the gate cleanly. The jockey wants the horse in stride immediately without asking for maximum effort, like duh!
Establish position, don't fight. If the horse naturally wants the lead, let it get there. Fighting a speed horse can waste more energy than allowing it to settle into its cruising speed. Yeah, don't ride the outside fence.
Find the rhythm. Great riders talk about "getting the horse to breathe." Once on the lead or in a stalking position, they soften their hands, sit quietly, and allow the horse to find a comfortable cadence rather than constantly urging. Maybe put some music in your ears.
Control the fractions. This is where races are won or lost. If the opening quarter and half-mile are too fast, the horse may have nothing left. Elite speed riders know when they can steal an easier fraction and when they have to engage another front-runner. Get that clock in your head but leave some room for brains.
Save something for the stretch. A speed horse doesn't have to lead by five lengths. Sometimes leading by one length while traveling comfortably is much more effective than opening an early daylight advantage. Think like you got coupon at the grocery store.
Feel the challengers. Experienced jockeys are constantly listening and sensing horses around them. If pressure comes too early, they may let another horse briefly engage before asking their mount for another gear. Channel in your sixth sense.
Ask at the right time. The best move is often subtle. Rather than an all-out drive turning for home, a top jockey gradually increases the pressure before the field catches up, forcing the closers to run even faster to get by. When you thinking its time to go, your horse will let you know when its too late.
The old jockey saying sums it up perfectly:
"Go as fast as necessary... never faster."
and I say, "No Shit Sherlock"
The horse supplies the speed; the jockey manages the fuel tank. Easy peezy, right?
We can all ride a speed horse now, just like NFL players can learn soccer in 6 months......or maybe not, I think the jockey saddles would be too small for my arse.
There is no substitute for the judgment earned by watching horses for forty years, but now, hey with AI we know better we can do it overnight.
You can't teach AI what your eyes immediately recognize when you walk onto the apron and see a racetrack that's dry as a beach. You know, almost instinctively, that closers have no chance today. Good luck getting a computer to understand that from a weather report and a few numbers.
The human eye still matters.
Experience still matters.
Common sense still matters.
At least... for now.
Unless somebody wakes up Skynet.
Then we're all doomed. Duh!
