I hope you all had a good thanskgiving, and enjoyed your families and the holiday, and probably like yours truly had big dinner, as my fanny pack doesn't fit around my waist today.
We have fattened ourselves up with winners last two days:
Thursday
Fair Grounds Thursday - 5 top choice winners
Gulfstream Park - top 4 choice winners
Total for CD, FG GP 10 top choice winners from 30 races 30%
Friday
Gulf 6 top choice winners from 9 races:
FG 4 top choice winners from 9 races
Churchill 3 top choice winners from 12
Del Mar 3 top choice from 9 races
Total 41% Friday top choices
Even though my fatty pack doesn't fit around my waist this morning when I took the boys out, I am always reminded to be thankful for all of you on this holiday weekend.
As we rumege thru our leftovers this weekend I came across some scraps to think about and share:
For example, very few handicappers pay attention to how quickly horses are being brought back, if they notice at all.
I kind of gave it away, by highlighting when this one ran off a 4 star work in November 15.
She is being wheeled back in 15 days, obviously, being bet down to 4-1 players were on this horse, and never once thought she was coming back too quick, especially being a filly.
She went a 1/2 mile and stopped on the lead, a true sign of a bounce. Handicappers will blame the pace, the inside, anything and everything but being wheeled back too quick.
My best and freshest example is Citizen Bull:
He went off at 15-1 in the Breeders Cup Juvenile because he got drilled in the Del Mar Futurity by stablemate GAMING, but look closer at it.
'Bull broke maiden very well and impressively on August 17th ( I know we use that terms loosely, but he truly was).
He came back to work 9 days later and went 6f in 113.4, the 48.3 official time was just a part of the work, and he wasn't done, he returned 5 days later and worked in 59.2 and 112.3 on our watch. Two works since August 17th top effort in 14 days.
He bounced like a rubber ball in the Del Mar Futurity 8 days later.
This is the epitome of doing too much with a young horse after their debut too soon.
Young horses, debuting 2yos, are not as strong as older horses that can be wheeled back in a hurry, they have yet to mature, yet to build a solid foundation of the stress of racing.
I hear the feedback, 'he came out of the race great', or 'ate everytihng up', and 'has great energy', but you can't really tell the effect of a race on a horse until the third week mark.
You have to be a very good horse with a tremendous constitution to handle that stress and move forward. You have to be a superstar.
Handicappers also don't pay attention where a horse is training, and the correlation of shipping and winning. Some barns strictly win shipping in on top of a race, getting the handicappers favorite note 'has a work over the track.'
If you listen to TV handicappers its like clockwork, they go to the 'who's going to get the lead?', or 'who's the controlling speed?' and my favorite overheard tag "and....he's working good'.
You are listening pretty much to raw bullshit. The 'Sham-Wow' guy was the only one with a better sales pitch. You have to remind yourself that these ADW handicappers are there for you to bet, entice you to go to play on their platform, push their handle.
The 'Expert Picks' are rampant all over the place and their videos with their face planted in the screen telling you who they like. The 'Expert Picks' is a catch phrase to make you believe they know better than you.
Fubar.
A very wise man once told me 'this game is all about bullshit' and he was right. It's your job, since you are like me, you love the game, the last thing you want to do is to add to the bullshit, all you want to do is deal in the reality.
The reality of the game is like thanksgiving, you know going in, you will eat too much, and your fanny pack will not fit around your waist.