But...

I hate that word.

Not dislike.

Hate it.

But.

The most overused word in handicapping. The most abused word on television. The favorite word of every talking head that wants to sound smart without ever risking being wrong.

"But" is not an opinion.

"But" is insurance.

Listen carefully the next time you watch a race show.

"I like the 7. Good speed. Fits the race. Tactical advantage... but..."

Stop.

The second but comes out of your mouth, you just told me you don't believe your own opinion.

You already built yourself an exit door.

If the horse wins, you remind everyone you liked him.

If the horse loses, you point to the but.

Magic.

You can never be wrong.

One of my favorites—and yes, this has actually been said on live television—

"He should be on the lead... or he may not."

Brilliant.

He'll win...

...or he won't.

Thank you for that earth-shattering analysis.

That isn't handicapping.

That's horoscope writing.

Every insecure handicapper has a but.

Every confident handicapper has a selection.

Big difference.

I don't need a parachute for every opinion.

I either like the horse...

...or I don't.

That's it.

No hedge.

No disclaimer.

No legal department attached to every sentence.

People are scared to be wrong.

Even worse, they're scared to be right.

Because if you're right today, somebody expects you to be right tomorrow.

That's pressure.

Most people can't handle pressure.

So they hide behind one little thee-letter word.

But.

False confidence?

Unlimited supply.

Open social media.

Everybody's an expert.

Everybody has the answer.

Everybody posts after the race.

Yesterday at Saratoga we liked two horses.

The Good Life in the first.

Key Colony Beach in the seventh.

A winner.

A second.

No excuses.

No rewrites.

No "I almost had it."

No but.

You take your stand.

You live with it.

You die with it.

That's handicapping.

The problem isn't being wrong.

We're all wrong.

The problem is lacking the courage to have an opinion in the first place.

So the next time you hear a handicapper say but, listen closely.

He isn't talking to you.

He's negotiating with his own lack of confidence.

And confidence, my friends, doesn't need a conjunction.