The last three Kentucky Derby preps, all three winners had something in common and if you didn't have them, you didn't 'look' too good!
They all three had impressive showings either in the morning or in the afternoon in their short career leading up to. their wins, if you paid attention and 'looked' good!
Let's start with Mystic Dan, the winner of the Southwest at Oaklawn.
Embedded in our products are videos and his work on January 27, see here, in the slop at Fair Grounds gave you the notion that he handled the off track well.
He was impressive in his work.
He handled the off track like a duck on a pond, he scooted through the inside and drew off impressively.
Hades, winner of the Holy Bull as our top choice, was a different find, you had to go thru his first two lifetime starts visually, especially the latest on December 31, 2023 when he won by eight lengths
I strongly recommend going to see that replay, the way he motored away from the field was eye popping. The visual handicapping ability of recognizing talent is missing from many handicappers, they don't believe their eyes. They don't 'look' too good!
They 'looked' to see numbers, stats, well, they didn't have Hades in that case. They fell for the hype on Fierceness, whom ran flat and looked like he hadn't grown up at all since the Breeders Cup according to Andie Biancone of Fan Duel on our most recent podcast
Fierceness was 1-5 on the board and it was a throw out for me, he is pace dependent on being in front. Two races, now, he has been beaten when he can't get to the lead.
If you watched December 31st effort you would have had Hades.
Seeing is believing.
No More Time fell in the Hades category.
His Mucho Macho Man 2-1 5th place effort was a troubled effort if you 'looked'. He broke in severely and nearly went over the inside rail, all the trouble line says is 'hopped start', last early, Jose Ortiz made a beeline to 5-6 wide, and launched a wide bid passing horses, catching the eye.
Like most young horses mentally, No More Time, wanted to be forward, and expanded his energy too early and flattened out, but if you went back to October 22nd maiden win, you saw his true running style
He was as impressive motoring away from the field to win an impressive 6 and 3/4 lengths, and once again, your eyes would have told you he was fast and wanted to be forward.
He did the same thing in the Sam F Davis, as our top choice, showing speed as we expected, and much to the surprise of many. He was 5-1 off a 10-1 morning line, be to 3-1 at post time, which most have focused on much less than the actual performance. He won well. It wasn't far fetched, if you 'looked'
This is a common theme nowadays, focusing on things we have no control of. None of us can help or avoid a horse being bet by others, but somehow we talk about ad nauseam like we actually have the ability to stop it.
That's exactly the noise other players constantly hear, static, and keeps them from truly seeing the performances without all this peripheral bullshit.
I try to shut it all out, roll my eyes, and do what I know what makes us successful and that's the issue for many, they are NOT successful.
A troglodyte in the industry took shots, at yours truly, because we picked the favorite. I cannot help if a horse we made top choice, emphatically at 10-1 on the morning line is bet down to 3-1. Yet, it was a sticking point for his own insecurities. You know he didn't have it and that was all I needed to know and laugh about.
Block out the noise, pay attention to the horses, and not the scattered jargon that pollutes the world in general today.
Believe your eyes.
Look!
All three horses had a visual resonance to their true abilities you may not see on paper, but most horseplayers don't believe their eyes, they want to believe bullshit, tips, mainstream talk, the last thing they want to believe is what they see.
They want to be wooed by absurdity, Jerry Springer characters and horse manure.
Of course, when they can't see it, they accuse people of cheating, rigged, the same bullshit you see in every aspect of society today.
Don't be blind, watch replays especially young horses, let your eyes guide you, but also be smart of where you get your information from.
If you are betting off a conspiracy theorist opinion you will get what you deserve at the windows, nothing more, nothing else.
I hammer on this factor, because too many people fall for the crap that is posted out there.
It's the stuff that isn't posted that you will beat you.
For example, in the Risen Star this weekend, one main competitor missed a drill, has not worked since early February as of today, and will go into the big prep with two weeks of no works. No mention, not a word. Nobody noticed or bother to 'look'
Another contender, discussed by many, was being pulled up in his latest work, yet, never reported, he didn't finish the drill. We saw it. We know what happened, and we will publish it in Saturday's Risen Star edition, but as far as I have seen, no one has mentioned it, no one has noticed there is no work for that contender this weekend, let alone reporting he pulled up.
Smart horseplayers who really want to make monies at the windows, do their homework, they put in the hours, the bad horseplayers are stuck in a cycle where it's all a conspiracy against them.
Be better, 'look' good