Mainstream media/info is common knowledge, for example past performances are common knowledge. Yet, past performance and many other factors can be overrated.
Common knowledge doesn't give horseplayers value, because, in a parimutuel betting system, you are wagering against any other Pick 5 Joe out there.
Pick 5 Joe will overrate some of the factors that are common knowledge and underestimate exclusive info, if they even know it exists.
Is that you? or like The Who sung:
'Well, who are you? (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
I really wanna know (who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
Tell me, who are you? (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
'Cause I really wanna know (who are you? Who, who, who, who?)'
Your first thought is about the CAWs?
CAW's are on the mind of too many horseplayers, in my opinion, we have no control of what others do, but I can tell you CAW's prey upon the mainstream betting, they don't handicap themselves, they play every combo to break even.
CAW's bet millions of dollars for the rebates. They are set up right in the pools, and their software, knows how mainstream bettors are betting.
Generating your own information makes you unique, you don't fit in their model.
We get our prices because we generate our own info. Our own workout times, analysis, we even have our own figures, pace and final. Again, we are outside the parameters of the main stream knowledge out there.
As handicappers have become more and more reliable to social media for their knowledge and information, they pretty much have all the same information.
CAW's rely on their play to base their computerized model and wagering.
This is something nobody speaks of, why? Because they are all working from the same playbook. Same language, same ideas, well, let's rephrase, they all lack their own ideas and fall to the mainstream media way of thinking.
There are players out there that still fall along the figures and bias, 1999 type of handicapping.
Literally, handicapping likes its 1999, and nowadays everybody has podcasts and betting feeds on social media. If you have seen one, you have seen almost all.
The real good players are not touting on social media, but work diligently on generating their own info.
I came across a number of interesting situations where even industry insiders were completely clueless of performances from horses because they don't watch replays.
If they do see a replay, it's the stretch run on social media.
Yes, even the insiders are cutting corners.
Generating your own info can consist of your own trip notes, but watching replays for situational trips not troubled trips.
Everyone knows trouble trips, but what about the horse that simply was in the wrong spot the entire race?
Hearing a horse had a trip "four wide on the turn, angled out and finished well'', tells me zero.
How was the horse doing it was he all out, was he being ridden confidently, is this where the horse should have been? and if not, how did he get there.
Most replay watchers look for poor starts, checking, trouble instead of seeing signs of uncomfortabilties with the surface, other horses, etc.
A speed horse between horses the whole way, especially maidens, first time starters, or turf horses, being 3-4 wide, whether they are in the clear or not, are worth noting. They may be uneventful to the masses of novice handicappers and race watcher but a trove of exclusive info for others.
Trouble is over bet, overrated, few handicappers actually understand that a horse with ability and sharpness can over come those issues a high percentage of the time if they actually had run to being with.
Then, there is those who can't watch a replay to save their life. Just can't process what they see, they don't believe their eyes, but they have opinions, of course.
I laugh at those horseplayers that send workout reports, sheets etc to their friends, they are hurting their own prices by spreading what they believe 'is goodwill', then out of the same mouth bitch and complain about there being too much 'chalk'.
What makes our workout videos exclusive info is that you can draw your own own conclusion, you could time the work yourself and use it for your own exclusive info.
Looking at a time alone and making decisions on that time alone is wagering suicide.
You have to remember these times are gathered and disseminate by official clockers, in my experience over 95% of these official clockers have their own agendas.
They use their position to 'try' to attract other individuals to bet for them.
In South Florida, I experienced this, starting in 2013 I was clocking at Palm Meadows and heard numerous stories of horseplayers calling, texting, or messaging official clockers for information.
The naive mentality that those individuals would part with their ''golden egg'' to help you is comical for starters. You needed to dish out 'dinero' and then again, the 'good stuff' would be for their high roller.
Official clockers think they are sitting on the golden goose.
There is no oversight, no checks and balances and none of these officials were bonded for integrity.
Official clockers can be enticed by trainers, owners, board members, they all want to know about workouts, they all want an advantage.
Yet, you the horseplayer comes in last for these folks.
Yes, it is a dog eat dog world, but the same people question why the game is at a such low point!
There isn't a day that goes by going thru the videos that I don't find massive discrepancy, team works flip flopped with the best horse in the drill getting the worse time.
Maybe, I want to give too much credit where credits really shouldn't be due, but I find myself saying 'Seriously?'
I have to say, however, official clockers don't get a replay, they only have one shot. To be fair. I have been there and done that.
I do see certain trainers get special treatment, year in and year out, horse works 6f gets a 1/2 mile, or gets a 49.4 when in reality it was 59.4.
Same cast of characters pops up regularly.
The east coast is notorious for half miles, trust me, horses go much further than a half in more than 60% of the works.
Some barns are exclusively given half miles and they go strong 5f and longer.
The mainstream Joe Handicapper is completely unaware and that is on them, as they make no effort to better themselves.
I go by the rule that is racing has as much hidden agendas and egos in play, in every aspect of the sport, as there is in politics.
If you want to survive in this game, you must have the knowledge, and that very few people are going to do you any favors or be forthright about what is reality.
Reality is NOT a place where many handicappers live these days.
2023 Kentucky Derby day, we ran a horse named Bo Cruz, the race after the Kentucky Derby, an allowance event. Bo' was coming off 12 length smashing maiden win.
If you watched the race, you knew he was a serious racehorse. All you had to do is watch the race.
We didn't go favored for big barn and syndicate, who won first out at Keeneland was 6/5.
A friend of mine happened to sit with the connections of that favorite. He knew what we had in Bo Cruz. As the horses approach the gate, the manager of the syndicate, turns to my friend, "I think we are good here.''
My friend just stared back 'like you're kidding', they were clueless, and this is a big outfit.
A handicappers, or as in this case, a manager, their arrogance kept them from being objective. He assumed he had the best horse without doing his due diligence.
I would have loved to be a fly on the wall when his horse ranged up and Bo' said ''see you later, alligator!"
The favorite was no match, and this happens everyday!
Entities will make outlandish and quick draw opinions without generating any info on their own. They are arrogant, partial and egotistical, and those are the types of people in the industry or in the world, you can beat, if you do the work and generate your own info.
Mainstream media has no value in the parimutuel betting system and it often overestimates the obvious and underestimates reality.
'Tell, tell me, who are you? (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
Come on, come on, who? (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)
Ah, who the f$%k are you? (Who are you? Who, who, who, who?)'