Here We Go!
Well, the post positions are drawn, the fluff is flying, and the posturing is in full bloom. Everybody's horse has never been better. Best work they've ever had. Couldn't be happier. Couldn't be sharper.
As Jerry Seinfeld would say, "Yadda, yadda, yadda."
I've been around this game long enough to know that when it comes to handicapping, you don't listen to the rhetoric. You watch the horses.
Here's the funny thing about Breeders' Cup week. Most of the year, you can't get a peep out of some of these trainers. They're not exactly lining up to have a conversation with you. Some of them wouldn't crack a smile if you handed them a winning lottery ticket. And God forbid you write something they interpret as negative. You might find yourself wearing the malocchio for the next twelve months.
But come Breeders' Cup week? My, how things change! Suddenly, everybody's smiling, everybody's social, and everybody has something to say. They're reading everything, watching everything, and paying attention to what gets written about their horses.
Funny how that works.
Trainers love the attention this time of year. Can't blame them. It's the biggest stage in the sport, and everybody wants their horse to look like the next coming of Secretariat.
The problem is that handicappers can get caught up in all the hoopla. A trainer says his horse worked great, and some folks treat it like a personal tout. The trainer says the horse has never been better, and suddenly it's gospel. Everybody starts reading between the lines, looking for some hidden message that might unlock the mystery of the race.
Slow down, Tex.
Keep your head centered. Remember what got you here.
I watch horses year-round. That's my job. I'm not going to change my approach because the Breeders' Cup has arrived. I'm going to judge these horses the same way I always have. I'm not about to abandon what has made me successful just because the microphones are out, the cameras are rolling, and everybody has something to sell.
I'll let others get caught up in the noise. I'll be watching the horses.
And one of the things I look forward to most is digging into the European runners, particularly those lining up for the Breeders' Cup Turf.
I love analyzing European form. I love going through their races, studying their performances, and trying to figure out what we're really looking at when these horses cross the Atlantic.
It's a different world over there, and understanding it can be worth its weight in gold.
Too many American handicappers approach European horses by applying the same principles they use when watching races here at home. They look at a running line, a final time, or a figure and think they've got the whole picture.
Dream on.
You've got to understand the horse, the competition, and the environment in which he's been racing. You've got to look beyond the numbers and appreciate what you're seeing. European racing has its own nuances, and if you don't take the time to understand them, you're handicapping with one eye closed.
How did I get started down this road?
Take a trip back to the 1990s with me in my Time Machine.
I used to buy the Timeform weekly books and their VCR tapes of major European racing events. That's how you learned back then. You bought the material, sat down, watched the races, and did your homework. There wasn't a shortcut, and there certainly wasn't a social media expert waiting to give you the answer.
I remember the 1993 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita. I was enthralled with the Europeans coming over. I couldn't wait to see these horses in person. I'd been reading about them in Timeform and watching them on those VCR tapes. Now I was going to get a firsthand look at the real thing.
One horse I was particularly excited about was Hernando, a top-class Group 1 colt.
I was down by the paddock when he came through, and there he was.
My first reaction? He wasn't what I expected.
Hernando was a small, compact horse. He didn't have the substance I had pictured in my mind. After reading about him and watching him race, I'd developed an image of what I thought he would look like. The horse standing in front of me was a different proposition.
And that's when the light bulb started going off.
European horses aren't necessarily built like their North American counterparts. You can't always judge them by the same physical standards, and you can't assume that what looks impressive here is the only way a good racehorse should look.
That experience helped fuel my fascination with how horses are made, how they're put together, and how they translate their physical attributes into performance on the racetrack.
I wanted to understand the differences. I wanted to learn more. And I began applying that knowledge to European shippers coming into California, looking for the clues that might separate the legitimate contenders from the pretenders.
That's the beauty of this game. The more you learn, the more you realize how much there is to learn.
Now, here we are again, Breeders' Cup week, and I'm looking forward to getting back into those European races. I'll be pouring over the form, watching their performances, and trying to identify the horses that might offer us some value.
The weather should be in their favor, which makes the European contingent all the more interesting.
And here's something I've learned over the years: Identify a good European horse, understand the form, and you can build your handicapping around him while getting a price.
That's what we're after. Not the obvious horse at an obvious price. Not the horse everybody is talking about because the trainer gave him a glowing review. We're looking for the horse whose ability might be underestimated because the crowd doesn't fully understand what they're seeing.
You don't have to find every winner. You have to find the ones the market hasn't figured out.
So let the trainers smile for the cameras. Let the media ask the same questions and get the same answers. Let everybody tell you their horse is training lights out.
I'll be doing what I've always done: watching the horses, studying the form, and trusting the process.
Because when the gates open, all that rhetoric goes out the window.
The trainer's quotes don't run a step. The press conference doesn't finish first. And Timeform doesn't need a microphone.
The horses do the talking. My job is to know how to listen.
