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Are you a Fredo?

Fredo was the fictional character in Godfather, son of Vito Corleone and brother to Michael Corleone played by John Cazale

Fredo wants to do things, he's smart, and eventually goes swimming with the fishies in the lake.

You want respect, you show you can do things, not to anyone else, but to yourself, I believe the handicappers mentality and approach is like Yogi Berra would have said, 'its 70% of the game, the other 80% can be attributed thru luck and ability'

The game owes you nothing, you have to earn it.

From day one, as an handicapper, I have tried to surround myself with the information I believe is essential, I had good teachers, I read their books, James Quinn, Steve Davidowitz, even Andrew Beyer.

I read the Quirin approach to race shapes, I built a foundation academically, and then went to learn from horsemen, Jack B Haynes, at Santa Anita in the 80s, and later Rudy Delguidice thru the sales and prepping horses.

Use your intelligence more than ego and arrogance.

Last night at our weekly Zoom we showed via videos how the workouts times you see in the paper are deceiving, we have viewed races in the past and noted how they differed visually from running lines.

Let's call it for what it is, nobody will do the bidding for the horseplayer.

You have to do it yourself, information is knowledge, knowledge is power, even in our current society of instant gratification.

Players want it know, not later, not building an understanding for the future. They want it yesterday, and tomorrow is too late.

I will continue to look at specific races on the cards, for example like today at Gulfstream and Oaklawn. I will play my bread and butter, using my visual handicapping skills.

I know the meets I do well, and where I don't.

I listen to handicapping shows, but not for horses, but content, and ideas. It helps me judge the people behind the picks.

Picks mean nothing to me, but I look for a nugget. For example, if Andie Biancone or Samantha Perry discuss the development of a horse and physical attributes, and no, I don't mean whether it's dappled out or not, but physical growth, weight, and overall attitude of the horse, I'm all ears!

If I hear, as we do every summer, about golden and/or dead rails, Beyer figures improvement or decrease by two points, I have tendency to shut those off, its just noise in the background.

Its Charlie Brown's mother voice: "wa wa wa wa"

Fredo had never respect for himself, he was a very well crafted character.

You are a Fredo, if you walk around life thinking you are owed in some shape for form. If your arrogance of who you are keeps tripping you up at the windows, then you are Fredo. Walk the walk and talk the talk, is far. more rewarding than 'Money Talks and Bullshit Walks'', a rhyming elaboration.

Know what you don't know and learn, grow, just like that 2yo turning 3, there has to be growth, same for handicappers.

I learn every day, to this day, I watch racing daily to learn, not directly to bet.

I lay out my opinions and then make a decision on the race, you would be amazed how many like a horse and then make a case for it, in what sense is that going to end well?

I hear the talk about takeout, but those same individuals who are using takeout as an excuse are playing the tracks with the highest takeouts.

Money talks, Bullshit walks.

Barry Meadow and I used to play a game, and we would pick the longest shot in the race, and set out to make a case for it. It was bullshit at its best and that's what it was meant to be, how much 'comical' bullshit we could dredge up on a horse to make a case, even though we knew very well we would never play that horse.

Barry and I, giggled and laughed, at how we could take a hopeless long shot and make that horse relevant via terms, scattered jargon and simply bullshit. We entertained ourselves at the track when he visited morning works.

Many horseplayers can do things like that, they can conjure up an argument on a long shot to allow themselves the confidence to play the horse. 'The quintessential longshot was Barry's tagline.

If it makes you feel good, playing against short priced horses, you are like the white knight in the game, playing value.

The name of the game is picking winners, just because a horse is a price, you want to be the hero, and pick the price play, the value play. About a novel thought, pick the winner, about that for a starting point?

Whether you bet on a 10-1, 20-1 or 7/2, a loser is a loser. You lose your wager all the same, but in the mindset of Fredo's you bet value. You bet a loser but you got value?

If an alien race took interest in handicappers mentalities they would run out of this galaxy so fast, for cover.

The name of the game is picking winners. End of story. There is nothing else you should try to do other than pick winners.

How you bet those winners and ticket structure is also in the eye of the beholder.

Ticket Structure, a winning ticket doesn't mean you had a winning ticket structure, you picked winners, but a losing ticket is a losing ticket, no matter what grandiose ticket structure you unveiled, you didn't pick winners.

I laugh out loud when I see posts about players citing the ticket structure on a winning ticket, they picked winners, not the structure.

Ticket structure is in the eye of the beholder and it is sensitive to each and every single horseplayer, my ticket structure is going to differ from yours, because of what I feel is important, that's ticket structure to me.

Horseplayers often quit and walk away from the game, they cite Takeout, and other excuses, but, at the end of the day, they can't win.

They blame cheating trainers, blame jockeys, blame their luck, but never ever blame themselves.

Like Fredo, they are smart, they can do things, but in the end they go swimming with the fishies.


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