By Andy Villanueva ~ WiththeWorks Staff
JANUARY 24, 2019
It’s important to understand the conditions when handicapping the non-Graded stakes races at Dubai. What makes Dubai Racing so incredibly competitive and highly profitable is understanding those races that take into account horses that fit the condition. Never will any of these horses not be “in over their head” when placed in conditioned races or handicaps. They may be out of form, but can easily round back into form when being able to face similar each out.
So you are asking us, “Why is this important?” Well it has to do with money. We all like it, being able to spot horses that can be reversing into form or have possibly run a big “figure” at a similar spot can produce some incredible value and betting opportunities. Especially when the North American betting pool is separated from the international.
Players or gamblers unfamiliar with European horses is when American horses ship across the pond, betters go with who they know or what horse they are familiar with regardless of class or if they are placed in the correct spot. This week let’s look at a couple of races that have conditioned based.
RACE 1: EGA BILLETS TROPHY
International Rated Stakes 95 & above
Great example of the opening night race as all horses in this spot have been rated at least 95 or higher. Looking closer, many of these horses have exited the same January 3rd race that Faatinah was victorious in. Most American bettors will likely make him the favorite off his impressive win.
We talk value all the time, before going well lets just look at the 30/1 shot and hope they win lets see if we can’t find a couple of value plays for exotics or to win.
(7) ORVAR (IRE) - The highest rated horse in his last three races, one of the few that exit the January 3rd race, he returned off from a three month layoff and off a win. He’s eligible to improve off that effort and may not have completely extended himself.
(5) REBEL STREAK (GB) - Second highest rated horses from his last three races, drops out of a Graded stakes race. Might be a little short coming in to this race but could be a good exotics play underneath. IF the odds climb up, could be a good play across the board.
RACE 4: EGA JEBEL ALI TROPHY
International Rated 90 to 108
Race is written differently for this class level. What we do know is that all the horses in this race aren’t going over a 108 rating and none are under 90 in ratings. That makes this quite a competitive race in terms of value. Only two horses in this race are exiting a Graded stakes race in either America or Meydan. Five of the nine entrants are coming out of the January 10 race that New Trails won.
(8) KEY BID (GB) - Was wheeled back in five days from the Saturday night non-Carnival races. Should be better suited for this distance as he won at this distance back in December.
(3) SALTARIN DUBAI (ARG) - Exits New Trails race, was being pointed toward the Dubai World Cup and faced eventual DWC winner Thunder Snow. Third race off the layoff, if he runs well here wouldn’t be surprised if connections point toward
Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge.
RACE 6: EGA AL TAWEELAH TROPHY
International Rated 95 to 108
Much more competitive race in terms of class level with ratings nearly identical heading into this race. Pretty straight forward for these turf runners going the marathon distance of a mile and half.
(9) DUBHE (GB) - England based Godolphin runner makes Meydan debut. Usually horses that are owned by the “Blue Brigade” and ship in are well meant. Returns off a long layoff where he was improving and William Buick rode him in England prior to his break.
(1) BIN BATTUTA (GB) - We could very well see this horse being pointed toward the Dubai Sheema Classic. Been improving with each start, loves the distance.
Godolphin could easily sweep the top three starts.