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Common Sense

Writer's picture: Bruno@RacingwithbrunoBruno@Racingwithbruno

Common sense isn't common these days because people follow their emotions instead of reason.



Reason has been replaced by fables, myhts and fairytales, and in this case rampant in the handicapping world. For example, the universal saying 'but he drew the rail'.


'...he drew the rail', is an emotional view instead of reason.



Reason can be that not every rail is the same, as every track is not the same, but 'he drew the rail' always finds a way to sneak in to the equation.



At Fair Grounds the rail, sprinting is a good thing, it boasts the highest winning % of all posts.



Fair Grounds Post Position study
Fair Grounds Post Position study

The one hole in 19.9% at 6f, the highest of all posts. The outside post 8 thru 12 in 190 races is 6.8%, of course sprinting. Thus, if you play percentages and analytics you should grativate to inside 7 posts, especially after scratches, as post positions change but program numbers do not, but let me add one other thought to the table above.


You see, the turf post positions, they are all lumped together, sprints and routes all in one table.


Equibase lumps all together, turf sprints and turf routes, for goodness sake they also count the 7.5 furlongs on the turf, a two turn affair as a sprint, not a route. The tooth fairy, they are NOT!


Thus, if a handicappers approaches the Fair Grounds sprints is dissing the one hole with the 'but he drew the rail', the hammer comes down on the thumb not the nail.


Gulfstream is also very good to the inside on the main track, but guess what ?

Gulfstream Park
Gulfstream Park

These post positons, for Sprints and Distance races are bundled up wih both Tapeta and Main track, much to the delight of Jake from State Farm and Patrick Mahomes.


They are bundled but they don't save the naive horseplayer. Those numbers are skewed.


Good luck digging up anything useful especially on the Gulfstream Park site, as you may need an indian guide to track where they (hide) put stuff.


I am left to ponder out loud if some of these people are having their jollies about sending horseplayers out like Lewis & Clark to find something on their pages.


It's no wonder why some horseplayers just look at social media, they don't want to be archaeologists and dig for the info, and that's why they constantly lose and scream out ''just one time, just one time''.


We also uncovered in our digs that videos and visual representation of the workouts don't lie.


You find that horse or horses on today's card at Fair Grounds that their works, times and rankings are straight fairy tales.


For example, in the 2nd race read our comments in the race for one specific horse, whom was really much the best, was 2/116 on the rankings but is buried down to 8/`116 and a slower time, meanwhile the horse that is listed later in the card as 2/116 and a 48.2 is really 30/116, or the maiden that worked from the gate in a maiden event later was much best, and got the losers time and down the list of rankings and time, read our comments there as well.


We could go on and on about how the information flow is often laced with booby traps for horseplayers.


Let's just speak freely, you get the monies with the right info, people lose their monies when they have poor or non-existent information. Knowledge is power and we know, especially with workouts they didn't come down the mountain with Moses, they are not gospel.


Videos don't lie and a little common sense goes a long way, but in today's world, common sense, is indeed very rare.



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