'Pays for Itself'

If you're handicapping Churchill Downs right now and you ain't paying attention to Irad and Jose Ortiz, then buddy, you're trying to fish in a pond without fish

The numbers are downright ridiculous. As of Friday, Irad and Jose have combined for 63 wins. The next two riders, Tyler Gaffalione and Luis Saez, have combined for 37. Not each. Combined.

That's not competition. That's a family-owned monopoly with saddle towels.

And speaking of family, these two brothers also share the same agent, Steve Rushing. Now, before somebody starts clutching their pearls, nobody's saying they're out there fixing races. They're competitors. They want to beat each other. But they're also operating from the same playbook and under the same management.

When Jose wins, everybody in that circle benefits. When Irad wins, everybody in that circle benefits. The spoils stay close to home.

Which means handicappers better quit looking at jockeys as isolated pieces and start looking at the operation as a whole.

Because the first question isn't always "Who's the best horse?"

Sometimes the first question is, "Why is Irad on this one?"

And the second question is, "Why did Jose get off that one?"

Those questions will make you money.

You see it all the time. A horse runs with a perfectly capable rider like Axel Concepcion. Axel rides well, wins races, and does everything asked of him. Then suddenly the entries come out and boom — Jose climbs aboard. Or Irad takes over.

Now maybe that's because the horse improved. Maybe the barn got aggressive. Maybe they just wanted the strongest possible rider.

Or maybe they're keeping the mount where they want it.

Either way, handicappers ought to notice.

The Ortiz operation has become its own ecosystem. They move from horse to horse, barn to barn, race to race, and the clues are sitting there in plain sight if you're willing to look.

And here's the part casual players miss entirely: these guys aren't just riding the races.

They're riding the mornings too.

Especially when Saratoga rolls around.

Lord have mercy, if there's a live horse on the grounds at Saratoga, chances are one of the Ortiz brothers has already taken it for a spin before breakfast.

They're test-driving everything.

They know who's training forward.

They know who's struggling.

They know which horse felt like a Ferrari and which one felt like a lawnmower with a flat tire.

And then their agent gets all that information flowing through one pipeline.

Now that's not some secret conspiracy. That's called doing your job exceptionally well. That's why Steve Rushing is one of the best in the business and why Irad and Jose keep ending up on live mounts.

The game has changed because of these two.

They don't make many mistakes.

Their agent doesn't make many mistakes.

And when you combine elite talent, elite information, and elite representation, you get exactly what we're seeing right now: domination.

Every era of racing has a handful of people who bend the game around them. Right now, at Churchill Downs and Saratoga, the Ortiz brothers are doing exactly that.

So when you're handicapping, don't just study speed figures and pace scenarios.

Don't ask 'who's gonna get lead', or 'who's the lone speed'.

Follow the bouncing Ortiz brothers, first and foremost.

• Watch who they're riding.

• Watch who they're abandoning.

• Watch who worked what in the morning.

And while we're handing out free advice, if you ain't following our 4-star workouts, then you ain't paying attention at all.

A 4-star work ain't some magical crystal ball. It ain't saying the horse is Secretariat reincarnated. It's information. Good information. Information gathered by people who actually watched the horse train instead of staring at speed figures in their basement while eating cold pizza.

The horse racing game is hard enough already. Why voluntarily ignore one of the few clues available?

Especially when these Ortiz boys are climbing aboard horses they've worked in the morning.

You got elite riders, elite agents, elite barns, and live workout reports all pointing in the same direction, and some handicappers still wanna tell you they're gonna "trust their numbers."

Buddy, your numbers are from three weeks ago.

The horse is telling you what he is today.

That's the whole point.

You don't have to agree with every 4-star work. Lord knows horses can fool you. They'll fool trainers, owners, jockeys, bettors, veterinarians, and occasionally themselves. But dismissing workout information altogether is like trying to solve a murder mystery while skipping every third chapter.

Then folks wonder why they keep cashing tickets about as often as they get invited to the Kentucky Derby.

Monday it was the last race:

$35.48 to win and $15.25 to place. Boom 💥

Friday in the first race:

Another Boom 💥 💥 💥 💥

The game gives clues. The morning works are clues. The rider changes are clues. The Ortiz brothers are clues. The barns are clues.

You don't have to follow every clue.

But if you're ignoring all of them, don't call yourself a handicapper. You're just guessing with confidence.

That's why we coined the phrase: "Pays for itself" but you have to pay attention.